Werder Bremen 1-2 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.73
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.2
6+ Goals
15%
11.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.37
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
22%
4.24
X/2
8%
8.22
X/X
12%
5.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.45
2/2
12%
5.99
2/X
8%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.45 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-3.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.4pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.25/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.90
-10% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +72%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
374 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 70%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
20.5 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Heidenheim
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.68 xG 1.36
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
467 Passes 263
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 4-2 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
12.03.2022 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL2
01.10.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
06.07.2020 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-2 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1P
02.07.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1P
30.10.2019 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-1 HT 4-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
1-2
AWAY Heidenheim
1.76 xG 1.79
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 10
483 Passes 201
81% Pass Accuracy 64%
21 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim squeezed past Werder Bremen 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Werder Bremen at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 65% of the ball to Heidenheim's 35%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.76 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.50 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim?

Werder Bremen 1-2 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 47%, draw 27%, Heidenheim 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Werder Bremen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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