Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 10 Feb 2024

Bayer Leverkusen
3-0 HT 1-0
Bayern Münih
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
26%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.23
1/2
5%
29.0
1/X
9%
12.6
X/1
17%
5.17
X/2
13%
6.06
X/X
10%
4.8
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
25.5
2/2
14%
4.03
2/X
8%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-0.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.2pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +39%
1.68/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/0.64
+19% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
420 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 74%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
15.4 Crosses 11.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.39 xG 1.93
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
348 Passes 562
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 42
8 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.09.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.03.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
30.09.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-0 HT 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
05.03.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
17.10.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-5 HT 0-5 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
20.04.2021 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-0 HT 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3-0
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.32 xG 0.56
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
344 Passes 579
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 17
9 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen cruised past Bayern Münih 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 39% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 61%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.32 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 2.50 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Münih?

Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 41%, draw 27%, Bayern Münih 32%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ BTTS Yes
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