TransINVEST Vilnius 3-2 Kauno Zalgiris — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 2 May 2024

📅02/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.48
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
49%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
20%
+9.3pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
49%
Away Win
56%
-6.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.5pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TransINVEST Vilnius EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 60%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.27/0.94
-2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +12%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TransINVEST Vilnius
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
6 Yellow Cards 2
12.03.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 2-1 HT 0-0 TransINVEST Vilnius TransINVEST Vilnius LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TransINVEST Vilnius
3-2
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Zalgiris
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TransINVEST Vilnius edged past Kauno Zalgiris 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Kauno Zalgiris at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, TransINVEST Vilnius had 40% of the ball to Kauno Zalgiris's 60%, shots finished 8-13.

What was the final score of TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Zalgiris?

TransINVEST Vilnius 3-2 Kauno Zalgiris in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 02/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split TransINVEST Vilnius 29%, draw 22%, Kauno Zalgiris 49%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✗ BTTS No
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