Kızılyıldız 2-1 Backa Topola — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 2 May 2024

📅02/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.29
Draw
18%
5.15
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.59
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
24%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
73%
-9.1pp
18%
Draw
16%
+1.8pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.6pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kızılyıldız EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
2.76/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.73
+38% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +70% / +6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
404 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 72%
48.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.5
28.0 Crosses 12.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kızılyıldız
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Backa Topola
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.05 xG 1.02
57% Ball Possession 44%
22 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
382 Passes 299
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
42 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-3 HT 0-1 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRP
01.11.2023 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 1-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
17.05.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 0-3 HT 0-1 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRBK
22.04.2023 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 4-1 HT 1-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
07.03.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-2 HT 0-1 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRP
04.09.2022 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 1-1 HT 1-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kızılyıldız
2-1
AWAY Backa Topola
3.17 xG 0.37
61% Ball Possession 39%
24 Total Shots 3
9 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
481 Passes 306
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
44 Box Touches 12
45 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kızılyıldız vs Backa Topola
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kızılyıldız squeezed past Backa Topola 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kızılyıldız as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kızılyıldız had 61% of the ball to Backa Topola's 39%, shots finished 24-3, expected goals 3.17 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kızılyıldız's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kızılyıldız had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Kızılyıldız and 0.83 for Backa Topola.

What was the final score of Kızılyıldız vs Backa Topola?

Kızılyıldız 2-1 Backa Topola in the Serbia - Super League on 02/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kızılyıldız vs Backa Topola?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kızılyıldız win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Kızılyıldız 64%, draw 18%, Backa Topola 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kızılyıldız), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kızılyıldız) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
SIRP More Serbia - Super League
2 May 2024
17:00 Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac vs Mladost Lucani Analysis →
17:55 FK Partizan vs Vojvodina Analysis →
19:30 Cukaricki Stankom vs Napredak Krusevac Analysis →