Central Coast Mariners 1-2 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 2 May 2025

Central Coast Mariners
1-2 HT 1-1
Brisbane Roar
📅02/05/2025 · 🕒12:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.4
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
12%
8.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.11
1/2
7%
21.9
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
17%
7.66
X/2
17%
5.06
X/X
10%
5.57
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
19%
2.69
2/X
8%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Brisbane Roar win — 43%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-3.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 50%
+2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -13%
1.51/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.49
-10% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 82%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
18.1 Crosses 22.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 0.9

Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Coast Mariners
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.78 xG 1.46
46% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
353 Passes 418
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.01.2025 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-3 HT 0-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
27.01.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
21.12.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-3 HT 0-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
12.11.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-2 HT 1-2 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
01.04.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 4-1 HT 3-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
10.02.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-2 HT 1-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS

Central Coast Mariners 1-2 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Coast Mariners
1-2
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.75 xG 1.61
54% Ball Possession 46%
26 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
10 Corners 3
388 Passes 351
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
35 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar nicked a narrow win over Central Coast Mariners 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Brisbane Roar as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Central Coast Mariners had 54% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 46%, shots finished 26-15, expected goals 1.75 to 1.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 0.83 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar?

Central Coast Mariners 1-2 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Central Coast Mariners 32%, draw 25%, Brisbane Roar 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brisbane Roar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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