Brisbane Roar 1-3 Central Coast Mariners — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 3 Jan 2025

Brisbane Roar
1-3 HT 0-1
Central Coast Mariners
📅03/01/2025 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.2
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.37
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
10%
5.23
X/2
16%
6.2
X/X
15%
4.52
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
13%
4.29
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.5 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Central Coast Mariners — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 36%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +16%
1.55/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.61
-7% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 81%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.7
18.7 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.46 xG 1.79
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
402 Passes 346
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
21.12.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-3 HT 0-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
12.11.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-2 HT 1-2 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
01.04.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 4-1 HT 3-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
10.02.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-2 HT 1-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
03.05.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-2 HT 0-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS

Brisbane Roar 1-3 Central Coast Mariners — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
1-3
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
2.00 xG 0.65
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
463 Passes 360
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
35 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners got the better of Brisbane Roar 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Central Coast Mariners made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 56% of the ball to Central Coast Mariners's 44%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 2.00 to 0.65 — the balance of chances actually favoured Brisbane Roar.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Brisbane Roar and 2.33 for Central Coast Mariners.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners?

Brisbane Roar 1-3 Central Coast Mariners in the Australia - A-League on 03/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners?

Before kick-off our model rated an Central Coast Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 35%, draw 28%, Central Coast Mariners 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Central Coast Mariners), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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