Melbourne City 2-0 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 3 Jan 2025

Melbourne City
2-0 HT 1-0
Wellington Phoenix
📅03/01/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.49
6+ Goals
11%
13.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.49 — our 25% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.46
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
16%
4.23
X/2
12%
8.41
X/X
11%
4.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
24.7
2/2
8%
6.45
2/X
6%
14.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.7 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-1.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.6pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 27%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +18%
1.91/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.83
+24% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
19.5 Crosses 14.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.25 xG 1.57
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
433 Passes 422
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
38 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.03.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
25.11.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
27.08.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUK
10.04.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 4-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
02.01.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-3 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
30.10.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-2 HT 2-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS

Melbourne City 2-0 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
2-0
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.14 xG 0.08
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 1
9 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 0
525 Passes 416
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
40 Box Touches 2
18 Crosses 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City saw off Wellington Phoenix 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Melbourne City had 54% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 46%, shots finished 21-1, expected goals 1.14 to 0.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Melbourne City and 0.83 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?

Melbourne City 2-0 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 03/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 49%, draw 25%, Wellington Phoenix 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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