Sofapaka 1-1 Mathare United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.59
Over
38%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
41%
2-3
33%
4-5
17%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.6pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.0pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sofapaka The Market 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Mathare United The Market 29%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.12/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.82
-14% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -47%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
304 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sofapaka
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Mathare United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
21.09.2024 Mathare United Mathare United 1-1 HT 1-0 Sofapaka Sofapaka KEN
20.10.2021 Sofapaka Sofapaka 1-2 HT 0-2 Mathare United Mathare United KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sofapaka
1-1
AWAY Mathare United
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sofapaka vs Mathare United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sofapaka and Mathare United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sofapaka at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Sofapaka had 55% of the ball to Mathare United's 45%, shots finished 16-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Mathare United led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sofapaka and 1.50 for Mathare United.

What was the final score of Sofapaka vs Mathare United?

Sofapaka 1-1 Mathare United in the Kenya - Premier League on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sofapaka vs Mathare United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sofapaka win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sofapaka 46%, draw 29%, Mathare United 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sofapaka), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sofapaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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