Melgar 1-1 Comerciantes Unidos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.25
Draw
22%
5.28
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
Over 2.5
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
76%
-14.1pp
22%
Draw
16%
+5.8pp
17%
Away Win
8%
+8.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.1pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 11%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
2.07/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.70
+2% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
323 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 76%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.2
22.6 Crosses 13.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.68 xG 0.41
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
383 Passes 227
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.09.2024 Melgar Melgar 3-0 HT 2-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
02.03.2024 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
02.11.2018 Melgar Melgar 2-1 HT 0-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
05.08.2018 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 2-2 HT 0-1 Melgar Melgar PER
20.11.2017 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 HT 1-1 Melgar Melgar PER
26.07.2017 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 0-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
1-1
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
2.03 xG 0.35
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
426 Passes 202
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 13
39 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Melgar at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melgar had 65% of the ball to Comerciantes Unidos's 35%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 2.03 to 0.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Melgar and 0.83 for Comerciantes Unidos.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Melgar 1-1 Comerciantes Unidos in the Peru - Premier League on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Melgar 61%, draw 22%, Comerciantes Unidos 17%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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