Gornik Leczna 1-3 Pogon Siedlce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.97
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Leczna EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.44/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.53
-5% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Leczna
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna POL1
28.02.2023 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 0-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna POLK
11.07.2020 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna 2-3 HT 1-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
20.10.2019 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 3-4 HT 2-0 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna POL2
08.07.2017 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna 1-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce HAZ
POST-MATCH Gornik Leczna vs Pogon Siedlce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Siedlce saw off Gornik Leczna 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Gornik Leczna at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Gornik Leczna and 1.80 for Pogon Siedlce.

What was the final score of Gornik Leczna vs Pogon Siedlce?

Gornik Leczna 1-3 Pogon Siedlce in the Poland - 1st Division on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Leczna vs Pogon Siedlce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Leczna win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gornik Leczna 43%, draw 28%, Pogon Siedlce 29%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gornik Leczna) ✗ Under 2.5
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