Alcorcon 1-1 Burgos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 2 Jun 2024

Alcorcon
1-1 HT 0-0
Burgos
📅02/06/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Alcorcon vs Burgos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
33%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.66
No
58%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.51
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.4
6+ Goals
7%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 31% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.9
1/2
9%
27.0
1/X
4%
13.1
X/1
14%
5.79
X/2
15%
5.31
X/X
18%
4.78
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
9%
3.45
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
33%
Away Win
38%
-4.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
56%
-14.6pp
58%
BTTS No
44%
+14.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alcorcon v Burgos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alcorcon EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Burgos EU Bookmakers 42%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +44% / +44%
0.97/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.39/0.59
-27% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / –
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
285 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
20.0 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 0.0

Alcorcon vs Burgos Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alcorcon
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Burgos
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.87 xG 1.65
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
346 Passes 308
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Burgos Burgos 4-2 HT 0-2 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS2
04.02.2022 Burgos Burgos 3-1 HT 2-1 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS2
10.10.2021 Alcorcon Alcorcon 1-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2

Alcorcon 1-1 Burgos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alcorcon
1-1
AWAY Burgos
1.77 xG 1.80
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 5
321 Passes 515
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 17
POST-MATCH Alcorcon vs Burgos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alcorcon and Burgos couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Alcorcon had 41% of the ball to Burgos's 59%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.77 to 1.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Burgos led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Alcorcon and 2.33 for Burgos.

What was the final score of Alcorcon vs Burgos?

Alcorcon 1-1 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alcorcon vs Burgos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alcorcon win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Alcorcon 39%, draw 28%, Burgos 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alcorcon), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alcorcon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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