Atalanta 2-3 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 2 Jun 2024

Atalanta
2-3 HT 2-3
Fiorentina
📅02/06/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Atalanta vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.61
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.33
Over 2.5
54%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.96
2-3 Goals
40%
1.95
4-5 Goals
27%
2.77
6+ Goals
12%
7.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.99
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.0
X/1
11%
4.06
X/2
6%
10.55
X/X
8%
6.36
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.15
2/2
10%
7.34
2/X
5%
15.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.15 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
58%
+1.3pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.8pp
20%
Away Win
20%
+0.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
39%
+6.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
61%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.9pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atalanta v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
1.90/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.65
+16% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
392 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 80%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
21.1 Crosses 20.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5

Atalanta vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.94 xG 1.13
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
288 Passes 365
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.04.2024 Atalanta Atalanta 4-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTK
03.04.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTK
17.09.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 3-2 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
17.04.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
02.10.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
20.02.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA

Atalanta 2-3 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
2-3
AWAY Fiorentina
1.77 xG 1.24
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
393 Passes 337
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina nicked a narrow win over Atalanta 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Atalanta at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atalanta had 54% of the ball to Fiorentina's 46%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.77 to 1.24 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atalanta.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atalanta and 1.17 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Fiorentina?

Atalanta 2-3 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 59%, draw 20%, Fiorentina 20%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Atalanta), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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