Gnistan 2-1 FC Lahti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 2 Jun 2024

📅02/06/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.94
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 33% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.69
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.65
X/1
14%
4.19
X/2
10%
7.17
X/X
13%
4.6
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
13%
5.65
2/X
6%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-5.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.2pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -10%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
Crosses 18.9
Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
0W-0D-1L
AWAY FC Lahti
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
17.02.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 1-2 FC Lahti FC Lahti FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
2-1
AWAY FC Lahti
1.71 xG 0.74
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
274 Passes 280
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs FC Lahti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan edged past FC Lahti 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gnistan as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gnistan had 51% of the ball to FC Lahti's 49%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.71 to 0.74.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs FC Lahti?

Gnistan 2-1 FC Lahti in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs FC Lahti?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 42%, draw 28%, FC Lahti 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gnistan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gnistan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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