Forward Madison 4-1 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 2 Jun 2024

📅02/06/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.9pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.1pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forward Madison EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.62/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.64
-33% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
16.6 Crosses 17.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forward Madison
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Lexington
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.86 xG 0.78
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
360 Passes 383
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.10.2023 Forward Madison Forward Madison 2-2 HT 0-0 Lexington Lexington USL1
23.06.2023 Forward Madison Forward Madison 3-2 HT 3-1 Lexington Lexington USL1
09.04.2023 Lexington Lexington 0-0 HT 0-0 Forward Madison Forward Madison USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forward Madison
4-1
AWAY Lexington
3.69 xG 1.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 3
469 Passes 436
90% Pass Accuracy 88%
30 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Forward Madison vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forward Madison cruised past Lexington 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Forward Madison as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Forward Madison had 51% of the ball to Lexington's 49%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 3.69 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Forward Madison had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Forward Madison and 1.33 for Lexington.

What was the final score of Forward Madison vs Lexington?

Forward Madison 4-1 Lexington in the USA - USL League 1 on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forward Madison vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forward Madison win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Forward Madison 50%, draw 23%, Lexington 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Forward Madison), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Forward Madison) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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