Erbil vs Baghdad Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Erbil v Baghdad — Team-Based Signals
Erbil vs Baghdad Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Erbil saw off Baghdad 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Erbil as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (61%) came in.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Erbil and 2.00 for Baghdad.
What was the final score of Erbil vs Baghdad?
Erbil 3-1 Baghdad in the Iraq - Premier League on 02/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Erbil vs Baghdad?
Before kick-off our model rated a Erbil win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Erbil 55%, draw 25%, Baghdad 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erbil), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.