Ilves Tampere 2-1 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 2 Jul 2025

📅02/07/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.18
Draw
18%
7.13
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
3.94
Over 2.5
64%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
9.99
2-3 Goals
31%
2.63
4-5 Goals
26%
2.38
6+ Goals
25%
3.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
47%
1.3
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
4%
25.0
X/1
11%
4.21
X/2
5%
27.5
X/X EV+ ✗
11%
12.9
2/1
7%
18.4
2/2
8%
21.35
2/X
4%
29.5
Value flag · X/X at 12.9 — our 11% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
80%
-15.2pp
18%
Draw
11%
+7.0pp
17%
Away Win
8%
+8.2pp
36%
Under 2.5
22%
+14.0pp
64%
Over 2.5
78%
-14.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 11%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.10/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/2.29
-13% / +127% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -21%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
434 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 73%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
15.0 Crosses 12.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
4W-2D-0L
AWAY KTP Kotka
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
2.06 xG 1.15
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
318 Passes 335
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.04.2025 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-5 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
22.09.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-3 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
08.07.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
29.04.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-0 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
30.06.2021 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-1 HT 1-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
28.05.2021 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-0 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
2-1
AWAY KTP Kotka
2.01 xG 0.46
62% Ball Possession 38%
26 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
501 Passes 267
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
56 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere nicked a narrow win over KTP Kotka 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 62% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 38%, shots finished 26-9, expected goals 2.01 to 0.46 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ilves Tampere's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ilves Tampere and 0.17 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs KTP Kotka?

Ilves Tampere 2-1 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 02/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 65%, draw 18%, KTP Kotka 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
2 Jul 2025
18:00 HJK Helsinki vs Jaro Analysis →
18:00 VPS vs Haka Analysis →
18:00 Inter Turku vs IFK Mariehamn Analysis →