Cerro Porteno 1-0 Sportivo Ameliano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 2 Aug 2024

📅02/08/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
24%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.29
No
54%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
66%
-15.8pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
24%
Away Win
12%
+11.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.6pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 15%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.93/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.61
+5% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +17%
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Porteno
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.04.2024 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 3-0 HT 1-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
26.01.2024 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 1-4 HT 1-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
28.09.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-3 HT 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PARK
16.07.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
14.04.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 1-2 HT 0-2 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
30.01.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-1 HT 0-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro Porteno
1-0
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Porteno squeezed past Sportivo Ameliano 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cerro Porteno as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Cerro Porteno had 56% of the ball to Sportivo Ameliano's 44%, shots finished 8-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Porteno had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cerro Porteno and 1.00 for Sportivo Ameliano.

What was the final score of Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano?

Cerro Porteno 1-0 Sportivo Ameliano in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 02/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Porteno win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cerro Porteno 51%, draw 26%, Sportivo Ameliano 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Porteno), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Porteno) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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