Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 2 Aug 2024

📅02/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.6 — our 28% vs market 16.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.18
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
8%
6.57
X/2
12%
5.07
X/X
10%
5.5
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
21%
2.91
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.9pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +7%
1.37/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.04
-13% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +8%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
257 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 83%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.3
18.2 Crosses 21.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.27 xG 1.85
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
291 Passes 375
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.05.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
05.12.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POLK
01.12.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.05.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
05.11.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-4 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
12.12.2021 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
1-0
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.44 xG 0.16
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
454 Passes 466
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 6
20 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze edged past Pogon Szczecin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Gornik Zabrze made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 49% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 51%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.44 to 0.16 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Gornik Zabrze's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Zabrze had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.17 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?

Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 02/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 34%, draw 27%, Pogon Szczecin 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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