Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.63
Over 2.5
51%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.46
No
52%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-6.2pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.3pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
34%
+14.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
66%
-14.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
64%
-16.5pp
52%
BTTS No
36%
+16.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +2%
2.01/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.36
+22% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
23.4 Crosses 17.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.52 xG 1.24
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
398 Passes 283
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.12.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POLK
01.12.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.05.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
05.11.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-4 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
12.12.2021 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
25.07.2021 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-0 HT 1-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
1-0
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
2.24 xG 0.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
22 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 5
375 Passes 360
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 18
27 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin squeezed past Gornik Zabrze 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 51% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 49%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.24 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pogon Szczecin's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Zabrze led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.67 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 52%, draw 22%, Gornik Zabrze 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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