Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 Warta Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.58
2-3 Goals
36%
1.9
4-5 Goals
29%
2.88
6+ Goals
10%
8.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.75
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.25
X/1
18%
3.64
X/2
6%
13.15
X/X
8%
6.91
2/1
7%
20.6
2/2
10%
9.86
2/X
7%
18.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-7.3pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.5pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Warta Poznan EU Bookmakers 19%
-12% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -14%
2.29/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.47
+20% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
395 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
22.5 Crosses 14.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Warta Poznan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.83 xG 1.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
344 Passes 362
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.12.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 0-0 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POLK
01.12.2023 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 1-2 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
29.04.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1 HT 3-0 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL
15.10.2022 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 2-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
25.06.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 HT 0-0 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan HAZ
27.02.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 0-0 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
3-0
AWAY Warta Poznan
1.55 xG 1.26
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
332 Passes 244
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Warta Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok swept aside Warta Poznan 3-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 55% of the ball to Warta Poznan's 45%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.55 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 0.83 for Warta Poznan.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Warta Poznan?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 Warta Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Warta Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 58%, draw 21%, Warta Poznan 21%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
25 May 2024
18:30 Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze Analysis →
18:30 Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Lodz Analysis →
18:30 Legia Varşova vs Zaglebie Lubin Analysis →