Legia Varşova 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.33
Over 2.5
55%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-12.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+10.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
39%
+6.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
61%
-6.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
1.87/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.75
+10% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
388 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
23.7 Crosses 14.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.29 xG 0.76
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
395 Passes 321
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.12.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 HT 0-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
04.02.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 HT 0-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
23.07.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
04.02.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 HT 0-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
15.12.2021 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 4-0 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
21.03.2021 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-4 HT 0-3 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
2-1
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.75 xG 0.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
326 Passes 390
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova squeezed past Zaglebie Lubin 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 46% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 54%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.75 to 0.55 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Legia Varşova's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Legia Varşova and 0.33 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Legia Varşova 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 46%, draw 24%, Zaglebie Lubin 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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