Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Puszcza Niepolomice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 2 Aug 2024

📅02/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.51
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 28% vs market 23.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.81
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
11%
4.55
X/2
11%
6.77
X/X
15%
5.0
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
12%
4.88
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.8pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.3pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -44% / -44%
1.35/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.72
-4% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -45%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
376 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 72%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
21.0 Crosses 22.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.70 xG 1.03
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
454 Passes 226
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
32 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 2-2 HT 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
18.08.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
1-0
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.29 xG 0.43
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
396 Passes 224
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
34 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepolomice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zaglebie Lubin squeezed past Puszcza Niepolomice 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Zaglebie Lubin as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 59% of the ball to Puszcza Niepolomice's 41%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.29 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Zaglebie Lubin had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.00 for Puszcza Niepolomice.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Puszcza Niepolomice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 02/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zaglebie Lubin win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 44%, draw 28%, Puszcza Niepolomice 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zaglebie Lubin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Zaglebie Lubin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
2 Aug 2024
21:30 Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin Analysis →