Almagro 3-1 Arsenal Sarandi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 2 Aug 2025

📅02/08/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
67%
Over
33%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.29
No
63%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1
45%
2-3
36%
4-5
12%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 67%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.9pp
32%
Draw
31%
+0.9pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.0pp
37%
BTTS Yes
40%
-2.8pp
63%
BTTS No
60%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almagro The Market 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Sarandi The Market 28%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -10%
0.98/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.44/1.15
-18% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almagro
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Arsenal Sarandi
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
30.03.2025 Arsenal Sarandi Arsenal Sarandi 2-2 HT 0-1 Almagro Almagro ARJPBN
08.05.2005 Almagro Almagro 1-2 HT 1-2 Arsenal Sarandi Arsenal Sarandi ARJ
24.10.2004 Arsenal Sarandi Arsenal Sarandi 2-2 HT 2-1 Almagro Almagro ARJ
POST-MATCH Almagro vs Arsenal Sarandi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almagro saw off Arsenal Sarandi 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Almagro as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arsenal Sarandi led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Almagro and 2.00 for Arsenal Sarandi.

What was the final score of Almagro vs Arsenal Sarandi?

Almagro 3-1 Arsenal Sarandi in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 02/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almagro vs Arsenal Sarandi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almagro win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Almagro 41%, draw 32%, Arsenal Sarandi 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almagro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Almagro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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