Nieciecza 1-1 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 2 Aug 2025

Nieciecza
1-1 HT 1-0
Pogon Szczecin
📅02/08/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
42%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.76
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
9.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.99
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
24.8
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
13%
6.25
X/2
15%
5.61
X/X
12%
5.02
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
18%
3.38
2/X
8%
12.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.8 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+3.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.4pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nieciecza v Pogon Szczecin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nieciecza EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -32%
1.39/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.30
-8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 81%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
15.9 Crosses 21.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nieciecza
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.66 xG 2.85
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
288 Passes 297
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 30
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.05.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-2 HT 1-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL
04.12.2021 Nieciecza Nieciecza 1-3 HT 1-2 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
15.04.2018 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-0 HT 0-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL
17.03.2018 Nieciecza Nieciecza 2-4 HT 2-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
21.10.2017 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-3 HT 1-1 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL
17.05.2017 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-1 HT 0-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL

Nieciecza 1-1 Pogon Szczecin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nieciecza
1-1
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.95 xG 1.10
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 9
252 Passes 383
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Pogon Szczecin at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nieciecza had 42% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 58%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.95 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nieciecza and 2.33 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin?

Nieciecza 1-1 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 02/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nieciecza 33%, draw 26%, Pogon Szczecin 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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