Lech Poznan 2-1 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 2 Aug 2025

📅02/08/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
21%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.35
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 26% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.26
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
24%
4.33
X/2
9%
9.18
X/X
13%
5.1
2/1
10%
23.05
2/2
6%
7.19
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
53%
+0.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
21%
Away Win
22%
-1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.67/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.49
-10% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
24.1 Crosses 14.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.63 xG 0.96
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
447 Passes 294
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-1 HT 2-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
21.07.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
09.03.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
02.09.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-1 HT 0-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
30.04.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-1 HT 0-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
16.10.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-2 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
2-1
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.60 xG 0.49
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 8
446 Passes 341
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan squeezed past Gornik Zabrze 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 55% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 45%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.60 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.83 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?

Lech Poznan 2-1 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 02/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 54%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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