Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 6 Dec 2024

Gornik Zabrze
2-1 HT 2-1
Lech Poznan
📅06/12/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.61
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
3.4
6+ Goals
11%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 27% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.76
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
11%
12.8
X/1
9%
5.76
X/2
8%
5.67
X/X
10%
4.74
2/1
12%
28.5
2/2
16%
3.68
2/X
8%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gornik Zabrze v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.70/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.35
-7% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
367 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
18.6 Crosses 16.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.96 xG 1.51
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
290 Passes 453
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.07.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
09.03.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
02.09.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-1 HT 0-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
30.04.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-1 HT 0-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
16.10.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-2 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
02.03.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-2 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POLK

Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
2-1
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.97 xG 2.21
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
313 Passes 413
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 52
6 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze nicked a narrow win over Lech Poznan 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Gornik Zabrze made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 43% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 57%, shots finished 14-21, expected goals 0.97 to 2.21 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lech Poznan.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.17 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?

Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 06/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 39%, draw 29%, Lech Poznan 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gornik Zabrze), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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