Motagua vs Marathon Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Motagua v Marathon — Team-Based Signals
Motagua vs Marathon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 0-2
Motagua
HON
2-1
HT 1-0
Marathon
HON
2-1
HT 0-0
Motagua
HON
3-0
HT 1-0
Marathon
HON
Marathon squeezed past Motagua 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Motagua at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Motagua and 1.00 for Marathon.
What was the final score of Motagua vs Marathon?
Motagua 0-1 Marathon in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 02/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Motagua vs Marathon?
Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Motagua 46%, draw 28%, Marathon 26%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.