Pumas UNAM 1-3 Tigres UANL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 2 Sep 2024

Pumas UNAM
1-3 HT 1-2
Tigres UANL
📅02/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.32
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 30% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.0pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pumas UNAM v Tigres UANL — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 31%
+13% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +8%
1.62/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.25
+45% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
330 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 80%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
19.5 Crosses 17.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.99 xG 1.17
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
239 Passes 393
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.02.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-2 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
11.12.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
08.12.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
28.08.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
12.02.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-2 HT 3-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
25.08.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK

Pumas UNAM 1-3 Tigres UANL — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
1-3
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.46 xG 1.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
420 Passes 338
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 15
31 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL saw off Pumas UNAM 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Tigres UANL found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 54% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 46%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 1.46 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.67 for Tigres UANL.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL?

Pumas UNAM 1-3 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 02/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 40%, draw 26%, Tigres UANL 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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