Tigres UANL 2-2 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Feb 2024

Tigres UANL
2-2 HT 1-0
Pumas UNAM
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Tigres UANL vs Pumas UNAM Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.24
2-3 Goals
47%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.6
6+ Goals
9%
14.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.17
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
21%
3.9
X/2
8%
9.72
X/X
14%
4.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.85
2/2
11%
7.72
2/X
6%
15.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.85 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tigres UANL v Pumas UNAM — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.61/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.63
-5% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
352 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 77%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
23.1 Crosses 16.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

Tigres UANL vs Pumas UNAM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.17 xG 1.08
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
410 Passes 237
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.12.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
08.12.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
28.08.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
12.02.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-2 HT 3-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
25.08.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
23.01.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-2 HT 1-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK

Tigres UANL 2-2 Pumas UNAM — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
2-2
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.69 xG 0.55
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
383 Passes 295
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL and Pumas UNAM shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Tigres UANL at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 55% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 45%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.69 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.17 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Pumas UNAM?

Tigres UANL 2-2 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 49%, draw 26%, Pumas UNAM 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tigres UANL) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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