Pachuca 3-2 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Feb 2024

Pachuca
3-2 HT 2-1
Tijuana
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒04:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Pachuca vs Tijuana Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 26% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.51
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
22%
4.43
X/2
7%
8.42
X/X
10%
4.31
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
7%
6.34
2/X
5%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
62%
-4.0pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.0pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.5pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pachuca v Tijuana — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -13%
2.00/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.83
+11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 77%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
23.2 Crosses 15.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Pachuca vs Tijuana Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tijuana
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.77 xG 1.54
50% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
293 Passes 286
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-3 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
27.02.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-0 HT 2-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
12.09.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 6-1 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
12.04.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 0-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
07.11.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 3-2 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
09.03.2021 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 2-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK

Pachuca 3-2 Tijuana — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
3-2
AWAY Tijuana
2.78 xG 2.08
59% Ball Possession 41%
24 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 5
324 Passes 205
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca nicked a narrow win over Tijuana 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Pachuca had 59% of the ball to Tijuana's 41%, shots finished 24-16, expected goals 2.78 to 2.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Pachuca and 1.50 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Tijuana?

Pachuca 3-2 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 58%, draw 23%, Tijuana 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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