Toluca 4-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Feb 2024

Toluca
4-1 HT 3-0
Leon
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Toluca vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
28%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.73
1/2
10%
33.5
1/X
6%
11.15
X/1
11%
5.08
X/2
8%
7.83
X/X
13%
4.65
2/1
9%
23.85
2/2
13%
5.12
2/X
7%
11.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.6pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toluca v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.56/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.47
+23% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
307 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 80%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
17.8 Crosses 13.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Toluca vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Leon
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.18 xG 1.60
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
366 Passes 292
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
29.01.2023 Toluca Toluca 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
27.07.2022 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
02.05.2022 Leon Leon 4-4 HT 3-3 Toluca Toluca MEK
31.10.2021 Toluca Toluca 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
10.05.2021 Leon Leon 2-2 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK

Toluca 4-1 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
4-1
AWAY Leon
2.19 xG 0.58
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
442 Passes 259
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 9
10 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca ran out comfortable winners over Leon 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Toluca had 62% of the ball to Leon's 38%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.19 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Toluca and 1.17 for Leon.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Leon?

Toluca 4-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Toluca 43%, draw 26%, Leon 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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