FC Juarez 2-2 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Feb 2024

FC Juarez
2-2 HT 1-1
Necaxa
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒02:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

FC Juarez vs Necaxa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.95
6+ Goals
9%
18.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 31% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.44
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
16%
4.95
X/2
12%
5.8
X/X
10%
4.17
2/1
8%
30.0
2/2
12%
4.3
2/X
8%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.8pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Juarez v Necaxa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.16/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.31
-7% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
302 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
20.7 Crosses 16.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

FC Juarez vs Necaxa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Necaxa
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.06 xG 0.86
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
352 Passes 259
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
13.03.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
23.07.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
08.01.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
23.08.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
20.03.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK

FC Juarez 2-2 Necaxa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
2-2
AWAY Necaxa
1.71 xG 0.86
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
387 Passes 240
76% Pass Accuracy 67%
38 Box Touches 26
27 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez and Necaxa couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was FC Juarez at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Juarez had 59% of the ball to Necaxa's 41%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.71 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for FC Juarez and 1.00 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Necaxa?

FC Juarez 2-2 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Juarez win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 44%, draw 26%, Necaxa 30%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Juarez) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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