Santos Laguna 3-2 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 2 Sep 2024

📅02/09/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
37%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 26% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
37%
Away Win
42%
-5.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.5pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 46%
+4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.28/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.55
+9% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / +93%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
294 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 81%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
18.3 Crosses 17.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos Laguna
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Necaxa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.26 xG 1.41
55% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
334 Passes 244
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
13.04.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 1-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
25.09.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-5 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
01.04.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
07.09.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
24.01.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-4 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
24.07.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 0-3 HT 0-2 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos Laguna
3-2
AWAY Necaxa
1.57 xG 3.30
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
496 Passes 221
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 35
35 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos Laguna edged past Necaxa 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Santos Laguna found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Santos Laguna had 66% of the ball to Necaxa's 34%, shots finished 19-19, expected goals 1.57 to 3.30 — on chances, Necaxa could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Santos Laguna and 2.00 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Santos Laguna vs Necaxa?

Santos Laguna 3-2 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 02/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos Laguna vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos Laguna win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Santos Laguna 37%, draw 26%, Necaxa 37%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
2 Sep 2024
02:00 Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL Analysis →