Necaxa 2-0 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 13 Apr 2024

Necaxa
2-0 HT 1-0
Santos Laguna
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Necaxa vs Santos Laguna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
24%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.82
Over 2.5
42%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.22
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.66
6+ Goals
9%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 31% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
20%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.3pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.3pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-2.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Necaxa v Santos Laguna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 30%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -17%
1.25/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.71
-14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
323 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 77%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
21.8 Crosses 15.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Necaxa vs Santos Laguna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.22 xG 1.65
49% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
243 Passes 271
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.09.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-5 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
01.04.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
07.09.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
24.01.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-4 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
24.07.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 0-3 HT 0-2 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
08.03.2021 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK

Necaxa 2-0 Santos Laguna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
2-0
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.99 xG 0.09
27% Ball Possession 73%
14 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 8
169 Passes 596
72% Pass Accuracy 90%
25 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa got the better of Santos Laguna 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Necaxa had 27% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 73%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.99 to 0.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos Laguna led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Necaxa and 2.00 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Santos Laguna?

Necaxa 2-0 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 45%, draw 31%, Santos Laguna 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✓ Under 2.5
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