Puebla 0-1 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 13 Apr 2024

Puebla
0-1 HT 0-0
Cruz Azul
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Puebla vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
5.09
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
51%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.51
Over 2.5
63%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.52
2-3 Goals
34%
2.02
4-5 Goals
33%
2.65
6+ Goals
11%
6.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
3%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
16%
+12.7pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.2pp
51%
Away Win
64%
-12.9pp
37%
Under 2.5
36%
+0.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
64%
-0.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.6pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 69%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.18/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.28
+67% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / -55%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
304 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 468 · 84%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
18.5 Crosses 16.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Puebla vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
308 Passes 350
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.11.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
18.02.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-3 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
24.07.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-2 HT 2-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
06.03.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-3 HT 1-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
25.09.2021 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
17.01.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK

Puebla 0-1 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
0-1
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.96 xG 2.41
31% Ball Possession 69%
13 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
221 Passes 589
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul edged past Puebla 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Puebla had 31% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 69%, shots finished 13-24, expected goals 0.96 to 2.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cruz Azul's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Puebla and 1.33 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Cruz Azul?

Puebla 0-1 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Puebla 29%, draw 20%, Cruz Azul 51%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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