Stoke City 6-1 Portsmouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 2 Oct 2024

Stoke City
6-1 HT 3-1
Portsmouth
📅02/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Stoke City vs Portsmouth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 27% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.46
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1
15%
4.32
X/2
12%
8.25
X/X
9%
4.84
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
12%
6.11
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stoke City v Portsmouth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stoke City EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 28%
-17% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.20/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.40
-23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 74%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
23.6 Crosses –
1.9 Yellow Cards –

Stoke City vs Portsmouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stoke City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Portsmouth
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
The Meetings
27.08.2014 Stoke City Stoke City 3-0 HT 1-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNLK
20.02.2010 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-2 HT 1-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNP
22.11.2009 Stoke City Stoke City 1-0 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNP
27.10.2009 Portsmouth Portsmouth 4-0 HT 1-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNLK
21.02.2009 Stoke City Stoke City 2-2 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNP
05.10.2008 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-1 HT 1-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNP

Stoke City 6-1 Portsmouth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stoke City
6-1
AWAY Portsmouth
2.52 xG 1.29
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
390 Passes 286
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stoke City vs Portsmouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City swept aside Portsmouth 6-1. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Stoke City as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Stoke City had 55% of the ball to Portsmouth's 45%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.52 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stoke City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Stoke City and 1.50 for Portsmouth.

What was the final score of Stoke City vs Portsmouth?

Stoke City 6-1 Portsmouth in the England - Championship on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stoke City vs Portsmouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stoke City win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 45%, draw 26%, Portsmouth 30%. The final score 6-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stoke City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stoke City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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