Nasaf Qarshi 2-1 Shabab Al Ahli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFCŞL2, 2 Oct 2024

📅02/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.66
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.3
6+ Goals
8%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 27% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
5%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-2.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nasaf Qarshi EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nasaf Qarshi
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 6
07.04.2015 Nasaf Qarshi Nasaf Qarshi 0-1 HT 0-0 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli AŞMP
18.03.2015 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 0-0 HT 0-0 Nasaf Qarshi Nasaf Qarshi AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nasaf Qarshi
2-1
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nasaf Qarshi vs Shabab Al Ahli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nasaf Qarshi squeezed past Shabab Al Ahli 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Nasaf Qarshi made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nasaf Qarshi had 52% of the ball to Shabab Al Ahli's 48%, shots finished 18-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Shabab Al Ahli led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Nasaf Qarshi and 0.50 for Shabab Al Ahli.

What was the final score of Nasaf Qarshi vs Shabab Al Ahli?

Nasaf Qarshi 2-1 Shabab Al Ahli in the AFCŞL2 on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nasaf Qarshi vs Shabab Al Ahli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nasaf Qarshi win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Nasaf Qarshi 40%, draw 26%, Shabab Al Ahli 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nasaf Qarshi) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nasaf Qarshi) ✗ Under 2.5
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