Oxford United 1-2 Swansea City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 2 Nov 2024

Oxford United
1-2 HT 0-1
Swansea City
📅02/11/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Oxford United vs Swansea City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
42%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.17
6+ Goals
8%
20.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 33% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.64
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
10%
6.22
X/2
18%
4.89
X/X
15%
4.09
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.3
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.8pp
42%
Away Win
40%
+2.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Oxford United v Swansea City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oxford United EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Swansea City EU Bookmakers 43%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +12%
0.91/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.12
+17% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 74%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
10.9 Crosses 18.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Oxford United vs Swansea City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oxford United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Swansea City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.83 xG 0.76
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
262 Passes 428
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.07.2023 Oxford United Oxford United 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City HAZ
09.08.2022 Oxford United Oxford United 2-2 HT 0-2 Swansea City Swansea City İNLK
10.01.2016 Oxford United Oxford United 3-2 HT 1-1 Swansea City Swansea City FAK
15.04.2005 Swansea City Swansea City 1-0 HT 1-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN2
08.12.2004 Oxford United Oxford United 0-1 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İN2
06.01.2004 Swansea City Swansea City 0-0 HT 0-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN2

Oxford United 1-2 Swansea City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oxford United
1-2
AWAY Swansea City
1.48 xG 2.57
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 8
227 Passes 461
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 20
7 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Oxford United vs Swansea City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swansea City edged past Oxford United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Swansea City as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Oxford United had 37% of the ball to Swansea City's 63%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 1.48 to 2.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Oxford United and 1.00 for Swansea City.

What was the final score of Oxford United vs Swansea City?

Oxford United 1-2 Swansea City in the England - Championship on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oxford United vs Swansea City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Oxford United 31%, draw 27%, Swansea City 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Swansea City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Swansea City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
2 Nov 2024
00:00 Preston North End vs Bristol City Analysis →
15:30 Stoke City vs Derby County Analysis →
15:30 Blackburn Rovers vs Sheffield United Analysis →
18:00 Sheffield Wednesday vs Watford Analysis →
18:00 Middlesbrough vs Coventry Analysis →
18:00 Queens Park Rangers vs Sunderland Analysis →