Stoke City 2-1 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 2 Nov 2024

Stoke City
2-1 HT 1-0
Derby County
📅02/11/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Stoke City vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.08
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.8
6+ Goals
10%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 27% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.22
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
15%
4.88
X/2
8%
6.16
X/X
9%
4.45
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
16%
4.48
2/X
9%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+3.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stoke City v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stoke City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 34%
-13% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -37%
1.23/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.38
-26% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -23%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 78%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
22.5 Crosses 18.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Stoke City vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stoke City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Derby County
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.64 xG 1.06
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
376 Passes 286
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.07.2023 Derby County Derby County 3-0 Stoke City Stoke City HAZ
30.12.2021 Stoke City Stoke City 1-2 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
18.09.2021 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 2-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
20.03.2021 Stoke City Stoke City 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
12.12.2020 Derby County Derby County 0-0 HT 0-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
31.01.2020 Derby County Derby County 4-0 HT 2-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL

Stoke City 2-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stoke City
2-1
AWAY Derby County
2.25 xG 0.61
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
291 Passes 252
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stoke City vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City edged past Derby County 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Stoke City as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Stoke City had 53% of the ball to Derby County's 47%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 2.25 to 0.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Stoke City's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Stoke City and 1.83 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Stoke City vs Derby County?

Stoke City 2-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stoke City vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stoke City win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 45%, draw 25%, Derby County 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stoke City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stoke City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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