PSG 1-0 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 2 Nov 2024

PSG
1-0 HT 1-0
Lens
📅02/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

PSG vs Lens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.38
Over 2.5
59%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.96
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
24%
2.77
6+ Goals
15%
7.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.74
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.65
X/1
20%
3.73
X/2
7%
13.4
X/X
11%
7.04
2/1
6%
20.3
2/2
7%
9.73
2/X
6%
18.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 7% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-9.5pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.4pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Lens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 19%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
2.01/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.34
+18% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
462 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
15.9 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

PSG vs Lens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lens
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.69 xG 1.36
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
633 Passes 315
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.01.2024 Lens Lens 0-2 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
26.08.2023 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 1-0 Lens Lens FR1
15.04.2023 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 3-0 Lens Lens FR1
01.01.2023 Lens Lens 3-1 HT 2-1 PSG PSG FR1
23.04.2022 PSG PSG 1-1 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
04.12.2021 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1

PSG 1-0 Lens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
1-0
AWAY Lens
2.88 xG 0.75
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
640 Passes 252
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
47 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH PSG vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG nicked a narrow win over Lens 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PSG had 69% of the ball to Lens's 31%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.88 to 0.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold PSG's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for PSG and 1.17 for Lens.

What was the final score of PSG vs Lens?

PSG 1-0 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split PSG 55%, draw 23%, Lens 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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