Chaves 2-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 2 Nov 2024

Chaves
2-1 HT 1-1
Paços De Ferreira
📅02/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Chaves vs Paços De Ferreira Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.18
6+ Goals
11%
20.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.3pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.0pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chaves v Paços De Ferreira — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.40/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.09
-27% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
19.6 Crosses 20.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Chaves vs Paços De Ferreira Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 1.34
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
312 Passes 280
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.05.2023 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
08.01.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR
31.03.2018 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
05.11.2017 Chaves Chaves 4-2 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
31.03.2017 Chaves Chaves 1-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
05.11.2016 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR

Chaves 2-1 Paços De Ferreira — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
2-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
0.77 xG 0.88
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
262 Passes 224
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves squeezed past Paços De Ferreira 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chaves as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Chaves had 54% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 46%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.77 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chaves and 1.00 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Paços De Ferreira?

Chaves 2-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Chaves 44%, draw 31%, Paços De Ferreira 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chaves), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chaves) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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