Maritimo vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Maritimo v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Maritimo vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
2-3
HT 1-1
Maritimo
POK
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
PORLC
3-4
HT 2-1
Maritimo
POR
2-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR
Maritimo 1-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Penafiel edged past Maritimo 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Maritimo at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Maritimo had 58% of the ball to Penafiel's 42%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.34 to 0.94 — on chances, Maritimo could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Maritimo and 0.83 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Maritimo vs Penafiel?
Maritimo 1-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 45%, draw 28%, Penafiel 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.