Penafiel 0-1 Maritimo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.48
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
46%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.9
6+ Goals
10%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 30% vs market 27.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
12%
1/X
11%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
19%
+4.7pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.6pp
46%
Away Win
55%
-9.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.6pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Maritimo EU Bookmakers 59%
+14% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.22/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.00
+41% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +52%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
238 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.6 Crosses 19.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Maritimo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.93 xG 1.40
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
205 Passes 339
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.12.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 0-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
23.11.2020 Penafiel Penafiel 2-3 HT 1-1 Maritimo Maritimo POK
21.12.2019 Maritimo Maritimo 0-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel PORLC
15.02.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 3-4 HT 2-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR
14.09.2014 Maritimo Maritimo 2-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR
05.01.2014 Maritimo Maritimo 2-3 HT 1-2 Penafiel Penafiel POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
0-1
AWAY Maritimo
2.02 xG 1.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 6
175 Passes 182
59% Pass Accuracy 61%
23 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Maritimo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Penafiel had 50% of the ball to Maritimo's 50%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.02 to 1.01 — on chances, Penafiel could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Penafiel and 1.83 for Maritimo.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Maritimo?

Penafiel 0-1 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Maritimo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 24%, draw 30%, Maritimo 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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