Penafiel vs Maritimo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Penafiel v Maritimo — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs Maritimo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
2-3
HT 1-1
Maritimo
POK
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
PORLC
3-4
HT 2-1
Maritimo
POR
2-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR
2-3
HT 1-2
Penafiel
POK
Penafiel 0-1 Maritimo — Actual Match Statistics
Maritimo nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 1-0 away from home.
As we said in the preview, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Penafiel had 50% of the ball to Maritimo's 50%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.02 to 1.01 — on chances, Penafiel could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Penafiel and 1.83 for Maritimo.
What was the final score of Penafiel vs Maritimo?
Penafiel 0-1 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Maritimo?
Before kick-off our model rated an Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 24%, draw 30%, Maritimo 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.