Benfica II 2-2 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.73
6+ Goals
9%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 31% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.5pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica II EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 31%
-11% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.42/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/0.81
-12% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.9 Crosses 23.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica II
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.33 xG 1.57
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
408 Passes 293
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.12.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-2 HT 2-2 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica II
2-2
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.85 xG 1.01
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
318 Passes 378
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Benfica II vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica II and Paços De Ferreira shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Benfica II had 46% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 54%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.85 to 1.01.

What was the final score of Benfica II vs Paços De Ferreira?

Benfica II 2-2 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica II vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Benfica II 40%, draw 29%, Paços De Ferreira 31%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Benfica II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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