Asteras Tripolis 3-2 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 3 Jan 2024

Asteras Tripolis
3-2 HT 1-2
Aris Saloniki
📅03/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Greece - Super League – 2023/2024

Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Saloniki Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
44%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.68
Over 2.5
38%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.88
No
62%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
4.27
6+ Goals
8%
21.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 34% vs market 31.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.1
1/2
5%
29.5
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
12%
6.62
X/2
13%
4.65
X/X
8%
3.96
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
27%
3.09
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+3.8pp
23%
Draw
29%
-5.5pp
44%
Away Win
42%
+1.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-11.2pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Asteras Tripolis v Aris Saloniki — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Asteras Tripolis EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 46%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
1.28/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.80
-1% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +58%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
270 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
15.7 Crosses 14.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Saloniki Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Asteras Tripolis
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.00 xG 1.09
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
310 Passes 364
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 3-2 HT 1-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
08.01.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 3-0 HT 2-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
11.09.2022 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 0-2 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
26.02.2022 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 0-2 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
05.12.2021 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-0 HT 1-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
25.04.2021 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-1 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN

Asteras Tripolis 3-2 Aris Saloniki — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Asteras Tripolis
3-2
AWAY Aris Saloniki
3.38 xG 1.55
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
315 Passes 355
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Asteras Tripolis squeezed past Aris Saloniki 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aris Saloniki at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Asteras Tripolis had 48% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 52%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 3.38 to 1.55 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Asteras Tripolis's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aris Saloniki led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Asteras Tripolis and 2.00 for Aris Saloniki.

What was the final score of Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Saloniki?

Asteras Tripolis 3-2 Aris Saloniki in the Greece - Super League on 03/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aris Saloniki win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Asteras Tripolis 33%, draw 23%, Aris Saloniki 44%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aris Saloniki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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