Juventus 1-2 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Super Cup, 3 Jan 2025

📅03/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.64
Over
49%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.55
2-3
39%
1.74
4-5
24%
4.32
6+
10%
22.55
Value flag · 4-5 at 4.32 — our 24% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.67
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
11%
5.22
X/2
15%
5.93
X/X
14%
3.9
2/1
10%
32.5
2/2
15%
4.4
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
57%
-6.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
43%
+6.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventus The Market 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan The Market 36%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-42% / -99% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
315 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 82%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.4 Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventus
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Milan
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.03 xG 0.74
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
407 Passes 346
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Milan Milan 0-0 HT 0-0 Juventus Juventus İTA
27.04.2024 Juventus Juventus 0-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
22.10.2023 Milan Milan 0-1 HT 0-0 Juventus Juventus İTA
28.07.2023 Juventus Juventus 2-2 HT 1-2 Milan Milan HAZ
28.05.2023 Juventus Juventus 0-1 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
08.10.2022 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Juventus Juventus İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventus
1-2
AWAY Milan
1.08 xG 1.61
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
382 Passes 393
87% Pass Accuracy 90%
19 Box Touches 15
30 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Juventus vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan edged past Juventus 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Milan made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Juventus had 51% of the ball to Milan's 49%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.08 to 1.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Juventus and 0.83 for Milan.

What was the final score of Juventus vs Milan?

Juventus 1-2 Milan in the Italy - Super Cup on 03/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventus vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Juventus win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Juventus 38%, draw 27%, Milan 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Juventus), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Juventus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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