Caerau (Ely) 1-2 Cwmbran Celtic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 3 Jan 2025

Caerau (Ely)
1-2 HT 0-1
Cwmbran Celtic
📅03/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2024/2025

Caerau (Ely) vs Cwmbran Celtic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.18
Draw
14%
7.13
Away
18%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
21%
3.17
Over 2.5
79%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.6
No
38%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
12%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
23%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
4%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
80%
-11.6pp
14%
Draw
11%
+3.2pp
18%
Away Win
9%
+8.3pp
21%
Under 2.5
28%
-6.8pp
79%
Over 2.5
72%
+6.8pp
62%
BTTS Yes
58%
+4.1pp
38%
BTTS No
42%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caerau (Ely) v Cwmbran Celtic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Cwmbran Celtic EU Bookmakers 12%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
6.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/2.66
+95% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
417 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Caerau (Ely) vs Cwmbran Celtic Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caerau (Ely)
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Cwmbran Celtic
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
The Meetings
05.10.2024 Cwmbran Celtic Cwmbran Celtic 3-2 HT 0-0 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
12.01.2024 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 4-2 HT 1-1 Cwmbran Celtic Cwmbran Celtic GALFAW
21.10.2023 Cwmbran Celtic Cwmbran Celtic 3-2 HT 1-1 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
POST-MATCH Caerau (Ely) vs Cwmbran Celtic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cwmbran Celtic edged past Caerau (Ely) 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Caerau (Ely) at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (79%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cwmbran Celtic led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Caerau (Ely) and 2.67 for Cwmbran Celtic.

What was the final score of Caerau (Ely) vs Cwmbran Celtic?

Caerau (Ely) 1-2 Cwmbran Celtic in the Wales - FAW Championship on 03/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caerau (Ely) vs Cwmbran Celtic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Caerau (Ely) 68%, draw 14%, Cwmbran Celtic 18%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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