Cwmbran Celtic 3-2 Caerau (Ely) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.08
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
42%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
3.17
Over 2.5
65%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.32
No
35%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
49%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
13%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
29%
+9.2pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.5pp
42%
Away Win
49%
-7.7pp
35%
Under 2.5
28%
+6.3pp
65%
Over 2.5
72%
-6.3pp
65%
BTTS Yes
72%
-6.3pp
35%
BTTS No
28%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cwmbran Celtic EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 54%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
1.91/2.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/2.29
+18% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -36%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
264 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 449 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cwmbran Celtic
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Caerau (Ely)
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
12.01.2024 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 4-2 HT 1-1 Cwmbran Celtic Cwmbran Celtic GALFAW
21.10.2023 Cwmbran Celtic Cwmbran Celtic 3-2 HT 1-1 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
POST-MATCH Cwmbran Celtic vs Caerau (Ely)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cwmbran Celtic edged past Caerau (Ely) 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 20% / 42%) promised a tight game; Cwmbran Celtic found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (65%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Cwmbran Celtic and 3.00 for Caerau (Ely).

What was the final score of Cwmbran Celtic vs Caerau (Ely)?

Cwmbran Celtic 3-2 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cwmbran Celtic vs Caerau (Ely)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cwmbran Celtic 38%, draw 20%, Caerau (Ely) 42%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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