Elche 1-3 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 Jan 2026

Elche
1-3 HT 1-2
Villarreal
📅03/01/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Elche vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.71
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
10.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.58
1/2
9%
24.85
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
11%
6.86
X/2
10%
5.38
X/X
12%
4.87
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
22%
3.14
2/X
7%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.8pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Elche v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elche EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +22%
1.49/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.13
+25% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
22.3 Crosses 12.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8

Elche vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elche
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Villarreal
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.05 xG 1.81
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
288 Passes 435
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.02.2023 Elche Elche 3-1 HT 2-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
04.09.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 4-0 HT 2-0 Elche Elche İS1
16.01.2022 Elche Elche 1-0 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
22.09.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 4-1 HT 2-1 Elche Elche İS1
06.02.2021 Elche Elche 2-2 HT 0-2 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
06.12.2020 Villarreal Villarreal 0-0 HT 0-0 Elche Elche İS1

Elche 1-3 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elche
1-3
AWAY Villarreal
1.32 xG 1.74
78% Ball Possession 22%
16 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
706 Passes 164
92% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 19
33 Crosses 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Elche vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal got the better of Elche 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Elche had 78% of the ball to Villarreal's 22%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.32 to 1.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Elche and 1.83 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Elche vs Villarreal?

Elche 1-3 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elche vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Elche 34%, draw 25%, Villarreal 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
3 Jan 2026
16:00 Celta Vigo vs Valencia Analysis →
18:15 Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Analysis →
23:00 Espanyol vs Barcelona Analysis →