Stenhousemuir 1-0 Dumbarton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 2nd Division, 3 Feb 2024

Stenhousemuir
1-0 HT 0-0
Dumbarton
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Scotland - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Stenhousemuir vs Dumbarton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.57
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.32
6+ Goals
9%
12.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.28
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
11%
4.2
X/2
11%
8.74
X/X
8%
5.32
2/1
6%
22.15
2/2
12%
6.32
2/X
7%
14.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.5pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stenhousemuir v Dumbarton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stenhousemuir EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +4%
1.71/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.48
+21% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Stenhousemuir vs Dumbarton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stenhousemuir
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dumbarton
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
6 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-1 HT 0-0 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir İK2
26.08.2023 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir 2-4 HT 0-4 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK2
01.04.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-2 HT 1-0 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir İK2
28.02.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-0 HT 1-0 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir İK2
04.02.2023 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir 1-1 HT 0-1 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK2
20.08.2022 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir 1-3 HT 0-1 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK2
POST-MATCH Stenhousemuir vs Dumbarton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stenhousemuir nicked a narrow win over Dumbarton 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Stenhousemuir as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dumbarton led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Stenhousemuir and 1.67 for Dumbarton.

What was the final score of Stenhousemuir vs Dumbarton?

Stenhousemuir 1-0 Dumbarton in the Scotland - 2nd Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stenhousemuir vs Dumbarton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stenhousemuir win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Stenhousemuir 45%, draw 23%, Dumbarton 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stenhousemuir), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stenhousemuir) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İK2 More Scotland - 2nd Division
3 Feb 2024
18:00 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Stranraer Analysis →
18:00 Forfar Athletic vs Spartans Analysis →
18:00 Clyde vs Peterhead Analysis →
18:00 Elgin City vs East Fife Analysis →